2009 MLB Playoff Picks

Now that the Twins dispatched with the Tigers (in 12 innings no less) to capture the AL Central, we can make some picks!

American League Division Series

• Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees: OK, sure, the Twins look a little overmatched. In Game 1, they face CC Sabathia and offer up, well, Brian Duensing. Not exactly a “fair matchup”. The same might be said for the rest of the respective teams’ parts: as I mentioned to Big Lou yesterday, any team that has Jose Morales as their DH might not have any business being in the postseason. That being said, I hate to pick against the sentimental favorite – and yes, the Yankees are only sentimental favorites in the minds of their players’ mothers (if that). So, I’m going to say that the Twins will scare the bejesus out of the Yankees … but fall just short. Yankees 3-2.
• Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Maybe they need to start scheduling this series in April? I feel like the Sox and Angels have played in Round 1 since the dawn of time. Anyway, the Sox sort of scuffled to the finish line – or at least streaked to the finish line, with a sweep of Cleveland after being swept at the hands of New York and Toronto. Ah, that is the nature of baseball! Everyone says “the Angels get hits! the Angels steal bases!” Well, fine, they sure do. However, unless you’re Jacoby Ellsbury, you don’t steal home much. The last I checked, the Sox aren’t slouches with the bats either (unless you count Jason Varitek). I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Sox starters show up for the series and quiet the free-swinging Angels. Red Sox 3-1.

National League Division Series

• Colorado Rockies vs Philadelphia Phillies: The last time this happened, the Phils were favored to win the series and the Rockies, well, steam-rolled them. Will it happen in 2009? Neither time has what might classically be known as “good pitching” – both are adequate and beasts of their respective home parks. The Phils do have Chase Utley and Ryan Howard as the backbone of their lineup. The Rockies, although a lot of fun, have Todd Helton and Troy Tulowitzki. The Phillies – if they can find a closer – will scrape by this series. Phillies 3-2.
• St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers: It seems wrong to me that the Dodgers have home field in this series – I mean, when was the last time the Dodgers seemed like a good baseball team? Who has the pitching advantage: Cardinals. Who has the hitting advantage: Cardinals. Seems to me that the Cardinals might be the better team here. Could it be that simple? Cardinals 3-0.

League Championship Series

• Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees: Has it really been five years since the last Sox-Yankees ALCS? What happened last time, anyway? The Sox won the first 7 meetings of these teams in 2009 and then the Yankees returned the favor by winning most of the rest. However, the teams are definitely well-matched. It will all boil down to which versions of the numbers 1-2 starters for each team decide to show up. I would say that Lester-Beckett in top form trump Sabathia-Burnett (remember, the Sox have beaten up on both of them), but the Yankees will have home field. The new Yankee Stadium bandbox plays into the strengths of the Yankees – that being “hit ball hard”. Will it be a grinder of a series? Indeed. Flip a coin ten times to try to pick a winner. Me, I’ll follow heart but with the caveat that brain says it might be otherwise. Red Sox 4-3.
• St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies: It is funny, comparing these two LCS. Likely, as an impartial observer, I might see the Yankees in the same light I see the Cardinals, i.e., the obvious favorite to win the League. However, in this postmodern world in which we live, one cannot deny context. The Cardinals have the shutdown pitching vs. the Phillies (well, unless Hamels and Lee get back on track). The batting order is pretty evenly matched – heck, I might even give Philly the advantage. Both teams have really questionable (or nonexistent) closers. If anything, the series might be wild. In the end, though, I might still have to lean towards St. Louis. St. Louis 4-2.

World Series

• Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals: Indeed, a rematch of 2004. Last year, I picked against the Red Sox and gave the Phillies the keys to the World Series. I have to admit, I feel the same way this year: the Cardinals will win it. However, as before, the Sox have all the tools to have the World Series for the third time in 5 years as well. However, the Sox need to have all their ducks in a row to make it through, while the Cardinals seem to already be in that “well-oiled machine” form. However, there are weeks of baseball to go before we get to the October (er, maybe November) Classic. St. Louis 4-3.

 

(Nearly) postseason baseball

The MLB postseason starts tomorrow – and I’ll have a few predictions for that coming later today or tomorrow.

However, today we have another tiebreaker, third year in a row – and second in a row featuring the Twins!

The Twins have Scott Baker facing off against the Tigers Rick Porcello. You know me, I do love an underdog, so I’m picking the Twins to win the tiebreaker – final score: 5-3. Heck, the Twins are really the better team with a positive run differential (+51) over the Tigers negative run differential (-1), so Twins win the Central!

 

707

 

MLB All Stars 2009

It is that All-Star time of year, so I thought I’d be ahead of the curve and post my AL and NL All Star picks for 2009. Now, mind you there is no equation I follow or anything like that. Just who I think deserves the accolade here at the midpoint of 2009. Anyway, 32 players per team and 1 player (at least) from each team. A couple players are injured (marked with an *), so I’ve also designated their replacements on the squads.

American League

Starters

• C: Joe Mauer – MIN
• 1B: Mark Teixiera – NYY
• 2B: Ian Kinsler – TEX
• 3B: Evan Longoria – TAM
• SS: Derek Jeter – NYY
• RF: Ichiro Suzuki – SEA
• CF: Torii Hunter – LAA
• LF: Jason Bay – BOS

Reserves

• C: Victor Martinez – CLE; Kurt Suzuki – OAK
• 1B: Kevin Youkilis – BOS; Justin Morneau – MIN
• 2B: Aaron Hill – TOR
• 3B: Brandon Inge – DET
• SS: Marco Scutaro – TOR; Jason Bartlett – TAM
• OF: Shin-soo Choo – CLE; Ben Zobrist – TAM; Jermaine Dye – CHW

Pitchers

• SP: Cliff Lee – CLE; Zack Grienke – KCR; Tim Wakefield – BOS; Roy Halladay – TOR; Josh Beckett – BOS; Edwin Jackson – DET; Felix Hernandez – SEA
• RP: Joe Nathan – MIN; Jonathan Papelbon – BOS; Mariano Rivera – NYY; David Aardsma – SEA; Hideki Okajima – BOS; Jonathan Johnson – BAL

National League

Starters

• C: Brian McCann – ATL
• 1B: Albert Pujols – STL
• 2B: Chase Utley – PHI
• 3B: David Wright – NYM
• SS: Hanley Ramirez – FLA
• RF: Justin Upton – ARI
• CF: Carlos Beltran* – NYM (replacement: Matt Kemp – LAD)
• LF: Ryan Braun – MIL

Reserves

• C: Yadier Molina – STL
• 1B: Prince Fielder – MIL; Adrian Gonzalez – SD; Adam LaRoche – PIT
• 2B: Orlando Hudson – LAD
• 3B: Pablo Sandoval – SFG; Ryan Zimmerman – WAS
• SS: Miguel Tejada – HOU
• OF: Raul Ibanez* – PHI (replacement: Hunter Pence – HOU); Brad Hawpe – COL

Pitchers:

• SP: Dan Haren – ARI; Josh Johnson – FLA; Johan Santana – NYM; Matt Cain – SFG; Chad Billingsley – LAD; Tim Lincecum – SFG; Javier Vazquez – ATL; Ted Lilly – CHC
• RP: Heath Bell – SD; Francisco Rodriguez – NYM; Ryan Franklin – STL; Huston Street – COL; Ryan Madson – PHI; Francisco Cordero – CIN

There you have it! Enjoy!

 

Pre-season picks revisited.

UmpBump is doing it, so why don’t I?

My preseason picks:

• AL East: Boston – Feeling pretty good about this one. Solid team, little drama, lots of depth. Good for them
• AL Central: Minnesota – The Twins are 4 games back (2nd) of the Tigers … and to my knowledge, the Tigers have an outfield of replacement players right now. I’m thinking the Twins will pull this out yet.
• AL West: Oakland – My predicted full season win% for the A’s: .512. Current win%: .449. Yet only 6 games out. Still, in 4th. Not a great pick, but the AL West is a mess.
• NL East: Philadelphia – 1.5 games up on the Mets … and we all know that means that Phils will win the division by 10 games.
• NL Central: St. Louis – They are winning the division! Up by 1 game over Milwaukee. Take that, Cubs fans (not that I have anything against you).
• NL West: Arizona – Unlike the A’s miss, the D-Backs not only suck, but also reside in the division with the MLB leader in wins (Dodgers). That leaves the D-Backs in 5th … down by 17 games … in mid June. Oops.
• AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay – The Rays are 2 games back of a very crowded wild card. Anybody’s guess how it will end up, but the Rays still have a very good shot.
• NL Wild Card: Chicago – See, I don’t hold anything against the Cubbies. It also helps they’re only 1.5 games back of the wild card lead as well.

Some player awards:

• AL MVP: Grady Sizemore – The bad elbow hasn’t really helped the cause.
• AL Cy Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka – HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHHA. I think I just died a little inside.
• AL Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters – He may have to defer this award to teammate Nolan Reimold.
• NL MVP: Aramis Ramirez – Call Aramis’ and Grady’s injury “the curse of Erik’s MVP picks”.
• NL Cy Young: Rich Harden – I’m guessing I won’t be getting any calls from ESPN on my baseball picking prowess.
• NL Rookie of the Year: Jordan Schafer – If he hit the ball, this would be much easier.

 

Where did it all go wrong?

Last year, my team, the Oncoming Storm, won my fantasy baseball league. This is no small feat. The league is a 14-team 7×7 head-to-head league with huge rosters and very competitive owners. Somehow, the Oncoming Storm snuck by the favored opponent in the championship game and I won my first championship in the league’s six year history.

So, how have I followed this up? By sucking. It is mid June and my team currently sitting in 5th in the 7-team Laramide Division with a winning percentage of .489. Where has this season gone off the tracks? Let us try to find out.

First off, my seven keepers:

The Keepers:

1. Grady Sizemore – CLE/OF – This is a great starting point. Grady’s terrible season and DL trip has almost single-handedly brought the team’s fortunes with it.
2. Nick Markakis – BAL/OF – Nick hasn’t been hurt, but so far he’s only hit 7 HR, a disappointment by most accounts.
3. Josh Hamilton – TEX/OF – The last of my great OF trinity, and another injury-plagued, disappointing season. It is hard to recover from this trio’s maladies.
4. Justin Morneau – MIN/1B – A good keeper, but see Alex Gordon (below).
5. Dan Haren – ARI/SP – One of the few unmitigated successes in my keepers.
6. Joakim Soria – KC/RP – My first foray into keeper a closer in a few years. Soria’s injuries and KC’s ineptitude is making this hard to swallow.
7. Daisuke Matsuzaka – BOS/SP – This is the killer. Daisuke has been terrible this year. Amongst the other players I could have kept: James Shields, Matt Garza, Edinson Volquez and the real killer, Victor f&%king Martinez. I was counting on Daisuke to be my #2 SP. Lately I’ve been pondering releasing him outright. Ugly.

The Draft Picks

I had the #12 pick in a snake-style live draft.

1. Alex Gordon – KCR/3B – I was so excited by this pick and thought he could anchor my offense with the OF trinity. Then he started out terribly. And then got injured. I had very little depth at 3B when he went down (to be specific, Nick Punto), so I hastily traded Justin Morneau for Adrian Beltre and Matt Garza. Up until very recently, the trade was a disaster. Now, it is closer to a mixed bag. Still, hard to recover from this.
2. J.J. Hardy – MIL/SS – Again, excited to get him, but his 2009 has been a disaster.
3. Scott Baker – MIN/SP – The start of 2009 was rough for Baker, but he’s rebounded nicely.
4. Mariano Rivera – NYY/RP – Mo has been very up and down, but still is one of the league’s leaders in saves.
5. Kevin Slowey – MIN/SP – Slowey’s season has been solid so far, albeit a little inconsistent.
6. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – TEX/C – A bit of a disappointment so far, with only 5 HR and an OBP of .300
7. Howie Kendrick – LAA/2B – He’s been terrible, but I luckily traded him (and Elvis Andrus) for Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf. That trade turned out well for me.
8. Chien-Ming Wang – NYY/SP – You know, at the time, I was excited to have snagged Wang at this point in the draft. He seemed to be recovered from his foot injury, but like Daisuke, Wang has been horrific.
9. Mike Gonzalez – ATL/RP – Solid especially considering our league counts both saves and holds.
10. Mike Cameron – MIL/OF – Good start, but cooled off significantly lately. Can’t complain about the 12 HR and .360 OBP though.
11. Kurt Suzuki – OAK/C – He’s had his ups and downs, but generally pretty solid as one of my 2 starting catchers.
12. Edgar Renteria – SF/SS – Injuries and weak bat has not returned my optimism for the Colombian SS.
13. Paul Konerko – CHW/1B – 8 HR/41 RBI/.347 OBP, a strong comeback for Konerko (but not enough to come close to replacing Morneau at starting 1B).
14. Wandy Rodriguez – HOU/SP – A month ago, I would have been singing Wandy’s praises. Since then, he’s 0-4 with an ERA to match. I hope he can figure out how to pitch again.
15. Felix Pie – BAL/OF – Fail.
16. J.P. Howell – TAM/RP – I told myself to not draft non-closer RPs in the draft, but I did anyway. He’s been solid. Traded away with Garza for Clay Buchholz and Nolan Reimold in the rebuilding phase.
17. Jeremy Guthrie – BAL/SP – Danced on the edge of mediocrity until he took the full plunged. Released.
18. Jon Rauch – ARI/RP – See Howell, except a failure. Released.
19. Ryan Sweeney – OAK/OF – Huh? Released.
20. Jeff Neimann – TAM/SP – I hung onto him until he began to suck. Released, but then watched him get his act together for a few starts. Now he’s bad again. Ah well.
21. Cody Ross – FLA/OF – His brutal start led me to release him. However, I might have been hasty.
22. Junichi Tazawa – BOS/SP – Minor league flyer. Still sitting in one of my two minor league roster slots.
23. Nomar Garciaparra – OAK/1B-3B – Injuries made this a bad pick. Released.
24. Yuniesky Betancourt – SEA/SS – Bad season, but I released him before the season anyway.
25. Aaron Rowand – SFG/OF – Traded in the preseason for
    
26. Yusmiero Petit – ARI/SP – Eh. Last round flyer that didn’t work out.

Trades

• Aaron Rowand SFG/OF for Andy Sonnanstine TAM/SP – Rowand has been better than I assumed (pre-season trade). Sonny didn’t last long on my roster.
• Andy Sonnanstine TAM/SP for David DeJesus KC/OF – DeJesus was a nice acquisition for Sonny, but DeJesus didn’t last long on the roster either.
• David DeJesus KC/OF for Casey Kotchman ATL/1B – Kotchman has been a solid CI for me. The injury wasn’t well-timed, though.
• Elvis Andrus TEX/SS & Howie Kendrick LAA/2B for Orlando Hudson LAD/2B & Randy Wolf LAD/SP – This one has been a pretty solid win for me.
• Justin Morneau MIN/1B for Adrian Beltre SEA/3B & Matt Garza TAM/SP – Not good. See above.
• Clay Buchholz BOS/SP & Nolan Reimold BAL/OF for Matt Garza TAM/SP and J.P. Howell TAM/RP – First trade in rebuilding.

Key Free Agent pickups

Currently on Roster

• Add: Adam Kennedy – OAK/2B – His hot streak gave the season some hope.
• Add: Scott Podsednik – CHW/OF – Who’da thunk it?
• Add: Luke Scott – BAL/OF – Now, this is a FA signing that was a masterstroke so far. We’ll see if Scott keeps it up.
• Add: Carl Pavano – CLE/SP - Up and down, but to get any up from Pavano is a plus.
• Add: Scott Feldman – TEX/SP – Surprisingly solid so far.
• Add: Angel Guzman – CHC/RP – Solid MR.
• Add: Brian Bruney  – NYY/RP – When he hasn’t been hurt, he’s been a great MR.
• Add: Mark DiFelice – MIL/RP – Solid MR.

No longer on roster

• Gary Sheffield – NYM/OF – Maybe gave up on him too quickly.
• Willie Aybar – TAM/UT – Good while Bartlett was out.
• Alberto Callaspo – KCR/2B – Had a good run with him.
• Josh Outman – OAK/SP – Again, I might have released him too quickly.

The long-and-short seems to be that my pitching has not worked out and injuries have really hurt my offense. Hard to get a long way when most of your keepers end up hurt or duds. Add that your first two draft picks being terrible/hurt and some poor panic trades, it becomes a recipe for losing. So now the rebuilding has begun …

 

2009 MLB Predictions

You’ve seen the BB Mogul simulations, now I make the real predictions. This takes into account the simulations and some old fashioned hunches, mixes them in a big bowl, and spits them out as my real feeling for the 2009 season. Enjoy!

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox – 95-67 - Pretty much three words sum up with the Sox will win the East: depth, depth, depth. This is the deepest Red Sox team in years … and they have a pile of budget room to go after players midseason without worrying about breaking the bank.
2. Tampa Bay Rays – 92-70 – The 2009 Rays will be a balance of progress and regression, but like the Red Sox, they have the depth to make up for the regression.
3. New York Yankees – 89-73 - Spend half a billion dollars and all you get is 89 wins? I think the Yankees will be a study in whether the sum of the parts vs. the whole. They also lack the depth of their division rivals Red Sox and Rays. However, the Yankees prediction is highly variable – I wouldn’t be shocked to see them win anywhere from 85 to 95 games.
4. Baltimore Orioles – 77-85 – Now, I’m not saying the O’s are good, but they are better than people think. Maybe not in 2009, but watch out in 2010 if they can get their pitching in order and jettison more of the veteran flotsam.
5. Toronto Blue Jays – 69-93 – Now, I’m not saying the Jays are bad … OK, I am. I have this feeling the Jays will bottom out this year and clean house – bye bye Roy, J.P., Vernon and maybe even Alexis.
   

AL Central

1. Minnesota Twins – 88-74 – The Twins have a lot of pitching depth, a good mix of youth and veterans and its their last season before a new stadium. How that last one matters I’m not sure, but if Mauer is out for a long time, all bets might be off. (It also helps that the Central is pretty weak this year).
   
2. Chicago White Sox – 86-76 – My SABR-loving side really wants to pick against the ChiSox. Every year, in almost every regression, they should suck. And then they win. Why fight it? Kenny Williams will beat Big Blue again, but not enough to best the Twins.
3. Cleveland Indians – 82-80 – Back in January, I picked the Indians to win it all. Then I noticed something: their rotation, well, is terrible. Lee, Carmona, Pavano, Reyes, Lewis. Three one-hit wonders, one half-a-hit wonders and a rookie. Lee will regress, Carmona will rebound, God knows what Pavano will do and Reyes will be decent, but it won’t lead them to the post season.
4. Detroit Tigers – 78-84 - Getting older, questionable starters, bullpen in disarray. Doesn’t sound like a recipe for success does it?
5. Kansas City Royals – 77-85 - Now, I really wanted to have the Royals finish above .500, mostly because I am a big fan of Gordon, Soria (the “Mexicutioner!”) and Grienke, but with guys like Jacobs and Olivo and a RF at 2B, the defense will be the death of them.

AL West

1. Oakland Athletics – 83-79 – Blammo! Yes, Billy Beane’s patchwork magic will work. This prediction relies on the pitching taking a step forward in unison and Matt Holliday being Matt Holliday, but the AL West is nuts anyway, so why not let the A’s win it?
2. Seattle Mariners – 81-81 – Blammo redux! You have to love the potential OF defense of Ichiro, Franklin and Endy. They’ll cobble together enough runs – especially if the front offices smartens up and brings up Clement (and thus boots Kenji from the island) and maybe puts Tuisosopo at SS instead of Betancourt. However, I can also guarantee you the ‘Ners will have a negative run differential this year.
   
3. Los Angeles Angels – 78-84 – You know, I think until Mike Scoscia ends his love affair with guys like Chone Figgins and Erick Aybar and starts playing the Brandon Woods of the world, I won’t predict the Angels to be over .500. Their rotation looks like their arms might fall off, the OF is old and the defense is suspect. Color me skeptical.
4. Texas Rangers – 72-90 – Fear not, Rangers Fans, there is a lot for which to look forward. Sadly, that “forward” will be 2010. 2009 will be more transitional as we let Padilla and Millwood (and Blalock?) leave the flock. And look from Smoak in the majors by August.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies – 95-67 – Just another year of Philly excellence. And thats all I really have to say about them: they’re good.
2. New York Mets – 90-72 – You know, after Johan, the Mets rotation is, well, almost bad. Maybe they can convert JJ Putz to a starter? Or David Wright? The offense will carry them, but only so far.
3. Atlanta Braves – 84-78 – Good pitching, but need to stay healthy. The bullpen could be dominant or terrible. They really don’t have a weakness, but they don’t have a strength either (beyond McCann). I think that’s why I can’t get behind the Braves in 2009.
4. Florida Marlins – 80-82 – They have Hanley and some great arms in the rotation. However, the rest of the team is downright questionable or bad. Uggla needs to play third, but so does Hanley. The bullpen might be a black hole. What this team needs is direction, maybe the stadium deal will help.
5. Washington Nationals – 62-100 – Now that Jim “I want every underperforming OF and 1B in the league” Bowden is gone, maybe we can make some progress? This is a big transition year where the Nats need to get value by trading Guzman, Nick Johnson, Kearns and whoever is over 27 (other than Dunn) and not bolted down for some value. Then, maybe, the Nats can make progress.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals – 91-71 – On the backs of Pujols and Dave Duncan, the Cardinals will give Tony LaRussa one last ride to the top. Now, they need to solve their 2B dilemma and get Troy Glaus back, but the pitching is good and when you have Pujols and “Dick” Ankiel, that is all that matters in the Central.
2. Chicago Cubs – 90-72 – Milton Bradley breaks down, but Rich Harden doesn’t. Kevin Gregg is the closer … until May. This is the year that Aramis Ramirez gets his MVP and Soto takes over as team leader.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates – 84-78 – Maybe I think pitching coaches make more of a difference than they do – I mean, look at what happened to Leo Mazzone in Baltimore. However, I think Joe Kerrigan will straighten out the Pirates pitching, the offense will click and a little magic will happen to save the Pirates from their 18th straight losing season.
4. Cincinnati Reds – 80-82 – Maybe Dusty is mellowing with age, but I think he’ll go easier on his young arms. So, with Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Bruce, Dickerson and Votto, the Reds will be getting primed to be good again … in 2010.
5. Milwaukee Brewers – 75-87 – You know, I had a lot of trouble knowing what to do with the Brewers. They made the playoffs in 2008, they have a lot of young talent and, well, I like them. However, they made the playoffs last year on the back of the departed CC and, well, Braden Looper is not CC. This prediction is pretty loose – like the Yankees, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Brewers win anywhere from 74 to 88 games in 2009.
6. Houston Astros – 64-98 – How did Homer put it? “They were the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked.” No depth, no young talent (beyond Pence) and a rotation of Oswalt and pray for apocalypse. It will be ugly in Houston this summer.

NL West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks – 90-72 – They have great pitching, they have depth, they have youth, they have veterans. It is the mix you love to see – especially when they have a chip on their shoulder, which I think they will after letting LA steal the division in the last couple months of the season.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers – 88-74 – Why do I have the feeling that having Manny this year will be less fun for LA (and yes, he opts out after the season). The starters will hurt the Dodgers – well, everyone but Billingsley – and they’ll miss D-Lowe more than you’d think.
   
3. San Francisco Giants – 82-80 – Maybe add some offense, and the Giants might make a run for the division in 2010. However, you will not win any division with guys like Ishikawa, Burriss, Lewis and Molina populating the middle and top of your lineup. The rotation, however, will be great.
4. Colorado Rockies – 70-92 – We’ll always have 2007! Thats because 2009 is a retooling year. If they’re smart, they’ll move Helton, Atkins, Street and Hawpe for parts while they have value.
5. San Diego Padres – 60-102 – What is the stage beyond “retool”? Burn it and salt the earth? The new ownership will breathe much needed life into the franchise and hopefully get it back on track.

Playoffs (winner in bold)

ALDS

• Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland A’s
• Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins – Just think, the last time we can have a dome/dome series… ever!

NLDS

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals – The Phillies just don’t have the belly-fire for a repeat.
• Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs - The Cubs win a tiebreaker with the Mets, but thats as far as they get.

ALCS

• Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays – The Sox have the depth to make it over the Rays youth movement.

NLCS

• St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Do you want to face Webb and Haren in a playoff series?

World Series

• Boston Red Sox vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Sorry, I didn’t see a way around it anymore. Sox in 2009.

Awards

AL

• MVP: Grady Sizemore – OF, Clevaland
• Cy Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP, Boston
• Rookie of the Year: Matt Weiters – C, Baltimore
• Surprise: Alex Gordon – 3B, Kansas City

NL

• MVP: Aramis Ramirez – 3B, Chicago
• Cy Young: Rich Harden – SP, Chicago
• Rookie of the Year: Jordan Schafer – OF, Braves
• Surprise: Paul Maholm – SP, Pirates

Here’s to 2009!

 

BB Mogul 2009 MLB Simulations

OK, I said I’d post the full results of my Baseball Mogul simalutions, so here it is (in PDF form). I ran 2009 150 times with current rosters/depths, mostly from ESPN along with some corrections on my part. Now, I also tried to add in the Alex Rodriguez situation in New York by simulating 25 seasons with Cody Ransom starting at 3B for the whole year, then did a weighted average of the wins from those sims with the 150 with A-Rod to get at how many fewer wins the Yankees might get with one or two months without A-Rod. More or less, it works out to a win per month. The simulated standings (below) represent the idea that A-Rod will miss ~1.5 months of 2009 (with Ransom or a player thereabouts taking up the playing time). Remember, these are not my official predictions for 2009, they will come next week, but the results of the BB Mogul simulations – I’ve tried to make comments on some of the issues with the simulations.

AL East

1. New York Yankees – 95-67
2. Boston Red Sox – 94-68*
3. Baltimore Orioles – 80-82
4. Toronto Blue Jays – 78-84
5. Tampa Bay Rays – 76-86

Notes: For what its worth, Baseball Mogul, at least up to the 2009 version, seems to be very pro-veterans and anti-youth. Thus, the very poor performance of the Rays and the surprising good performance of the Orioles. The Red Sox and Yankees, in these simulations, are more or less in a dead heat for 1st in the Division and nobody has a >3.5% chance of winning the division beyond those two.

AL Central

1. Minnesota Twins – 92-70
2. Detroit Tigers – 83-79
3. Cleveland Indians – 81-81
4. Kansas City Royals – 77-85
5. Chicago White Sox- 76-86

Notes: Minnesota walks away with the division, mostly thanks to its pitching. Chicago gets pounded thanks in part to an unforgiving home stadium for its pitchers (and its defense). The Indians are in trouble with their pitching as well. However, Cleveland and Detroit win the division almost the same amount of the time (18.7, 17.3).

AL West

1. Seattle Mariners – 82-80
2. Los Angeles Angels – 81-81
3. Oakland A’s – 78-84
4. Texas Rangers – 64-98

Notes: The AL West is where the park effects are most glaring: Seattle gains a lot from playing in pitcher-friendly Safeco, while the Rangers lose a lot in Arlington. However, that set aside, the AL West looks very much up for grabs, even without the current pitching woes factored.

NL East

1. Philadelphia Phillies – 92-68
2. New York Mets – 91-71*
3. Atlanta Braves – 81-81
4. Florida Marlins – 77-85
5. Washington Nationals – 65-97

Notes: Well, New York misses the division title by a hair – again. However, they are the favorite for the Wild Card. Everybody else has <10% chance at the division and Washington only finished 2nd once (<1% of the time).

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals – 88-74
2. Chicago Cubs – 86-76
3. Houston Astros – 82-80
4. Pittsburgh Pirates – 78-84
5. Milwaukee Brewers – 78-84
6. Cincinnati Reds – 75-87

Notes: St. Louis wins mostly thanks to Pujols and a strong showing by Chris Carpenter. Why BBM loves Houston so much is beyond me – I think its the power of Lee, Berkman and Oswalts, but what else do they have? Pittsburgh is the big surprise, winning the World Series in 2% of the simulations – you have to admit, that is a lot for Pittsburgh. Again, BBM undervalues the Reds young pitching to the tune of the basement and the only NL Central team to not win the division in any sim.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers – 92-70
2. Arizona Diamondbacks – 86-76
3. San Francisco Giants – 78-84
4. San Diego Padres – 70-92
5. Colorado Rockies – 70-92

Notes: Manny helped the Dodgers a lot – in earlier sims, the division was much closer. Now the Dodgers win it handily, 81% of the time. I thought the Giants would do better, but their aenimic offense lead to only 3.3% division wins.

* = wildcard winner

Overall notes: Talk about parity. Only one team never made the playoffs in all 150 sims: the Washington Nationals. The one-off World Series winners were Oakland, LA of Anaheim, and Houston while Detroit, Cleveland and Arizona won twice.

As for the playoffs, here is how they stack (winners in bold, based on % of wins for each type of series and above).

AL

LDS

• New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
• Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox

LCS

• New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

NL

LDS

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets

LCS

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

World Series

• Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Notes: The BBM sims call for the Boston Red Sox to win it all in 2009. The Phillies do well for themselves making back to the World Series as well.

Look for my official picks next week!

 

MLB Preseason Rankings … sort of!

This is my first post in quite a while. Sorry to the 3 of you who might have been perturbed … other pursuits got in the way.

Anyway, MLB season is around the corner (< 10 days), so I thought I’d post my predictions. This will come in three installments:

1. The MLB preseason ranking determined by my Baseball Mogul 2009 simulations of the 2009 season.
2. An indepth look at the simulations with division-by-division blows.
3. My real picks that combine the simulations with good, old fashioned hunches (how do you think I got the Philly pick right last year?)

So, without further ado, here are the rankings. I ran 150 simulations of the 2009 season (plus 25 seasons to run an “ARod” correction – see the second installment for details), and this is the rankings by total wins for 2009. Enjoy!

1. New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Philadelphia Phillies
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
6. New York Mets
7. St. Louis Cardinals
8. Chicago Cubs
9. Arizona Diamondbacks
10. Detroit Tigers
11. Seattle Mariners
12. Houston Astros
13. Los Angeles Angels
14. Cleveland Indians
15. Atlanta Braves
16. Baltimore Orioles
17. Oakland A’s
18. Milwaukee Brewers
19. Pittsburgh Pirates
20. San Francisco Giants
21. Toronto Blue Jays
22. Florida Marlins
23. Kansas City Royals
24. Tampa Bay Rays
25. Chicago White Sox
26. Cincinnati Reds
27. San Diego Padres
28. Colorado Rockies
29. Washington Nationals
30. Texas Rangers

 

Two words …

Pitchers & catchers.

(See, I used one of those “&” symbols, so it really was two words. Right? Right?!)