Abreu and the Angels

How many wins might Bobby Abreu bring the Angels? Good question! The AL West is going to be a tight division, so every win (or part of one) counts.

So, I ran 10 simulations with Abreu signed to the Angels. The difference? Absolutely nothing. Sorry LA (but you’re still the favorite in the division)

 

MLB 2009 Preview … Preview!

So, to give you a taste for my 2009 MLB Preview, here are some results of what team might benefit the most from signing Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn.

I ran 50 simulations of 2009 using Baseball Mogul 2009 as a baseline, then 5 simulations for each scenario.

Enjoy!

Manny Ramirez (wins listed with/without Manny)

• Los Angeles Dodgers (87.4/88.4) – Manny means 1 extra win for the Dodgers, which might be big in a tight (but mediocre) division
• New York Mets (91.0/96.2) – Guess which team got the biggest boost from Manny? Yup, the Mets. +5 wins puts them over the Phillies. Where are the Wilpons and their checkbook when you need ‘em?
• New York Yankees (98.0/92.2) – Thats right, Manny means -5.8 for the Yankees, which translates to the fact that Manny really doesn’t add much to the overly stacked lineup anyway.
• San Francisco Giants (82.3/82.8 ) – A half game gain is really in the noise of the simulations, but might be the edge the Giants need to be competitive
• Los Angeles Angels (81.2/81.0) – Really, no difference whatsoever, which surprised me. I guess the Angels are all about their pitching strength.
• Kansas City Royals (76.9/76.6) – Just for kicks, and yeah, the Royals are going to suck.

Adam Dunn (Wins listed with/without Dunn)

• San Francisco Giants (82.3/79.6) – I took the liberty of having Dunn play 1B, and really, he doesn’t help the Giants that much. They get dragged down by a lot of the flotsam that occupies the rest of the lineup.
• Atlanta Braves (85.7/86.8 ) – Dunn (playing LF) gives the Braves a modest 1 game bump upwards.
• Los Angeles Dodgers (87.4/92.6) – Maybe all this dancing with Manny is the wrong direction of the Dodgers. Just go out and sign Dunn for probably half the cost and walk away with the NL West.
• Washington Nationals (65.7/70.0) – Dunn adds almost 5 wins … to get the Nats to 70 for the season. OK, well, he’s no cure-all I suppose.

 

PECOTA loooves the Red Sox

Baseball Prospectus has just released their 2009 PECOTA team projections. Best team in the AL? Your Boston Red Sox. Projected to finish 98-64, two games ahead of the New York Yankees.

In honor of the beginning of spring training, I’ll have some early projections of my own in this space soon.

 

Pete & the Pirates

One more … well, two more … youtube treats for the evening:

 

I apologize in advance

And considering SNL/NBC are a bunch of content hogs, here is the link if the embedding fails.

 

Jim Rice or … ?

So, I’m a little behind after being in New Zealand for the beginning of the month that I have yet to comment on the MLB Hall of Fame vote this year. Congratulations to former Red Sox Jim Rice and Rickey Henderson (ok, Rickey only played part of one season, but whatever). The next closest to the 75% threshold were Andre Dawson and Burt Blyleven, with a disappointing 22.6% for Tim Raines. And hey, Mo Vaughn fell off the ballot after one year!

Back to Rice… I am happy he made it, I really am, but lets compare career numbers for a couple players I remember watching as a kid:

• Player 1: 8225 AB, 2452 H, 382 HR, .352 OBP, .298 BA, 9 All Stars, 1 MVP
• Player 2: 8996 AB, 2446 H, 385 HR, .370 OBP, .270 BA, 9 Gold Gloves, 3 All Stars

OK, so this is a bit unfair, but Player 1 is, of course, Jim Rice. Player 2 is his teammate, Dwight Evans. Evans fell off the Hall of Fame ballot rather quickly and Rice will have a bronze plaque. Now, Evans had a longer career to compile his counting stats, but Evans was also a dominant defensive OF as well as a great hitter. Now, should every Evans-like player be in the HOF? No, but I just wanted to point out that maybe, just maybe, the voters put the wrong Sox OF in the Hall.

 

Khan!

Really, it speaks for itself

 

President Obama

Out with the old, in with the new.

Now, the real work can begin. Good luck, Mr. President.

 

Returned!

I made it back from New Zealand. Let me tell you, it is a beautiful country, albeit a bit like visiting the 1950’s in a cultural/technological sense, but definitely fascinating. And if you ever want the best fish & chips you will ever have, head down to the Ponsonby Fresh Fish and Chips in Auckland. It almost makes me not want to eat fish & chips ever again, they were so good. The sort of chips that are crispy on the outside, but soft (almost liquid?) on the inside, while the fish (red snapper, I believe) was battered with minimal spices in an almost fried dough-type batter that just melt away in your mouth. I would have taken a picture of the lovely combo wrapped in newspaper, but it would likely make me cry because I would know that they are at least 11,000 km away.

 

Something to do with a ring

I likely won’t be posting for a couple weeks as I’ll be off on a visit to Mt. Doom. See you in mid-January!