BB Mogul 2009 MLB Simulations

OK, I said I’d post the full results of my Baseball Mogul simalutions, so here it is (in PDF form). I ran 2009 150 times with current rosters/depths, mostly from ESPN along with some corrections on my part. Now, I also tried to add in the Alex Rodriguez situation in New York by simulating 25 seasons with Cody Ransom starting at 3B for the whole year, then did a weighted average of the wins from those sims with the 150 with A-Rod to get at how many fewer wins the Yankees might get with one or two months without A-Rod. More or less, it works out to a win per month. The simulated standings (below) represent the idea that A-Rod will miss ~1.5 months of 2009 (with Ransom or a player thereabouts taking up the playing time). Remember, these are not my official predictions for 2009, they will come next week, but the results of the BB Mogul simulations – I’ve tried to make comments on some of the issues with the simulations.

AL East

  1. New York Yankees – 95-67
  2. Boston Red Sox – 94-68*
  3. Baltimore Orioles – 80-82
  4. Toronto Blue Jays – 78-84
  5. Tampa Bay Rays – 76-86

Notes: For what its worth, Baseball Mogul, at least up to the 2009 version, seems to be very pro-veterans and anti-youth. Thus, the very poor performance of the Rays and the surprising good performance of the Orioles. The Red Sox and Yankees, in these simulations, are more or less in a dead heat for 1st in the Division and nobody has a >3.5% chance of winning the division beyond those two.

AL Central

  1. Minnesota Twins – 92-70
  2. Detroit Tigers – 83-79
  3. Cleveland Indians – 81-81
  4. Kansas City Royals – 77-85
  5. Chicago White Sox- 76-86

Notes: Minnesota walks away with the division, mostly thanks to its pitching. Chicago gets pounded thanks in part to an unforgiving home stadium for its pitchers (and its defense). The Indians are in trouble with their pitching as well. However, Cleveland and Detroit win the division almost the same amount of the time (18.7, 17.3).

AL West

  1. Seattle Mariners – 82-80
  2. Los Angeles Angels – 81-81
  3. Oakland A’s – 78-84
  4. Texas Rangers – 64-98

Notes: The AL West is where the park effects are most glaring: Seattle gains a lot from playing in pitcher-friendly Safeco, while the Rangers lose a lot in Arlington. However, that set aside, the AL West looks very much up for grabs, even without the current pitching woes factored.

NL East

  1. Philadelphia Phillies – 92-68
  2. New York Mets – 91-71*
  3. Atlanta Braves – 81-81
  4. Florida Marlins – 77-85
  5. Washington Nationals – 65-97

Notes: Well, New York misses the division title by a hair – again. However, they are the favorite for the Wild Card. Everybody else has <10% chance at the division and Washington only finished 2nd once (<1% of the time).

NL Central

  1. St. Louis Cardinals – 88-74
  2. Chicago Cubs – 86-76
  3. Houston Astros – 82-80
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates – 78-84
  5. Milwaukee Brewers – 78-84
  6. Cincinnati Reds – 75-87

Notes: St. Louis wins mostly thanks to Pujols and a strong showing by Chris Carpenter. Why BBM loves Houston so much is beyond me – I think its the power of Lee, Berkman and Oswalts, but what else do they have? Pittsburgh is the big surprise, winning the World Series in 2% of the simulations – you have to admit, that is a lot for Pittsburgh. Again, BBM undervalues the Reds young pitching to the tune of the basement and the only NL Central team to not win the division in any sim.

NL West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers – 92-70
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks – 86-76
  3. San Francisco Giants – 78-84
  4. San Diego Padres – 70-92
  5. Colorado Rockies – 70-92

Notes: Manny helped the Dodgers a lot – in earlier sims, the division was much closer. Now the Dodgers win it handily, 81% of the time. I thought the Giants would do better, but their aenimic offense lead to only 3.3% division wins.

* = wildcard winner

Overall notes: Talk about parity. Only one team never made the playoffs in all 150 sims: the Washington Nationals. The one-off World Series winners were Oakland, LA of Anaheim, and Houston while Detroit, Cleveland and Arizona won twice.

As for the playoffs, here is how they stack (winners in bold, based on % of wins for each type of series and above).

AL

LDS

  • New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
  • Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox

LCS

  • New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

NL

LDS

  • Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
  • Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets

LCS

  • Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

World Series

  • Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Notes: The BBM sims call for the Boston Red Sox to win it all in 2009. The Phillies do well for themselves making back to the World Series as well.

Look for my official picks next week!

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MLB Preseason Rankings … sort of!

This is my first post in quite a while. Sorry to the 3 of you who might have been perturbed … other pursuits got in the way.

Anyway, MLB season is around the corner (< 10 days), so I thought I’d post my predictions. This will come in three installments:

  1. The MLB preseason ranking determined by my Baseball Mogul 2009 simulations of the 2009 season.
  2. An indepth look at the simulations with division-by-division blows.
  3. My real picks that combine the simulations with good, old fashioned hunches (how do you think I got the Philly pick right last year?)

So, without further ado, here are the rankings. I ran 150 simulations of the 2009 season (plus 25 seasons to run an “ARod” correction – see the second installment for details), and this is the rankings by total wins for 2009. Enjoy!

  1. New York Yankees
  2. Boston Red Sox
  3. Philadelphia Phillies
  4. Minnesota Twins
  5. Los Angeles Dodgers
  6. New York Mets
  7. St. Louis Cardinals
  8. Chicago Cubs
  9. Arizona Diamondbacks
  10. Detroit Tigers
  11. Seattle Mariners
  12. Houston Astros
  13. Los Angeles Angels
  14. Cleveland Indians
  15. Atlanta Braves
  16. Baltimore Orioles
  17. Oakland A’s
  18. Milwaukee Brewers
  19. Pittsburgh Pirates
  20. San Francisco Giants
  21. Toronto Blue Jays
  22. Florida Marlins
  23. Kansas City Royals
  24. Tampa Bay Rays
  25. Chicago White Sox
  26. Cincinnati Reds
  27. San Diego Padres
  28. Colorado Rockies
  29. Washington Nationals
  30. Texas Rangers

MLB 2009 Preview … Preview!

So, to give you a taste for my 2009 MLB Preview, here are some results of what team might benefit the most from signing Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn.

I ran 50 simulations of 2009 using Baseball Mogul 2009 as a baseline, then 5 simulations for each scenario.

Enjoy!

Manny Ramirez (wins listed with/without Manny)

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (87.4/88.4) – Manny means 1 extra win for the Dodgers, which might be big in a tight (but mediocre) division
  • New York Mets (91.0/96.2) – Guess which team got the biggest boost from Manny? Yup, the Mets. +5 wins puts them over the Phillies. Where are the Wilpons and their checkbook when you need ’em?
  • New York Yankees (98.0/92.2) – Thats right, Manny means -5.8 for the Yankees, which translates to the fact that Manny really doesn’t add much to the overly stacked lineup anyway.
  • San Francisco Giants (82.3/82.8 ) – A half game gain is really in the noise of the simulations, but might be the edge the Giants need to be competitive
  • Los Angeles Angels (81.2/81.0) – Really, no difference whatsoever, which surprised me. I guess the Angels are all about their pitching strength.
  • Kansas City Royals (76.9/76.6) – Just for kicks, and yeah, the Royals are going to suck.

Adam Dunn (Wins listed with/without Dunn)

  • San Francisco Giants (82.3/79.6) – I took the liberty of having Dunn play 1B, and really, he doesn’t help the Giants that much. They get dragged down by a lot of the flotsam that occupies the rest of the lineup.
  • Atlanta Braves (85.7/86.8 ) – Dunn (playing LF) gives the Braves a modest 1 game bump upwards.
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (87.4/92.6) – Maybe all this dancing with Manny is the wrong direction of the Dodgers. Just go out and sign Dunn for probably half the cost and walk away with the NL West.
  • Washington Nationals (65.7/70.0) – Dunn adds almost 5 wins … to get the Nats to 70 for the season. OK, well, he’s no cure-all I suppose.