BB Mogul 2009 MLB Simulations

OK, I said I’d post the full results of my Baseball Mogul simalutions, so here it is (in PDF form). I ran 2009 150 times with current rosters/depths, mostly from ESPN along with some corrections on my part. Now, I also tried to add in the Alex Rodriguez situation in New York by simulating 25 seasons with Cody Ransom starting at 3B for the whole year, then did a weighted average of the wins from those sims with the 150 with A-Rod to get at how many fewer wins the Yankees might get with one or two months without A-Rod. More or less, it works out to a win per month. The simulated standings (below) represent the idea that A-Rod will miss ~1.5 months of 2009 (with Ransom or a player thereabouts taking up the playing time). Remember, these are not my official predictions for 2009, they will come next week, but the results of the BB Mogul simulations – I’ve tried to make comments on some of the issues with the simulations.

AL East

  1. New York Yankees – 95-67
  2. Boston Red Sox – 94-68*
  3. Baltimore Orioles – 80-82
  4. Toronto Blue Jays – 78-84
  5. Tampa Bay Rays – 76-86

Notes: For what its worth, Baseball Mogul, at least up to the 2009 version, seems to be very pro-veterans and anti-youth. Thus, the very poor performance of the Rays and the surprising good performance of the Orioles. The Red Sox and Yankees, in these simulations, are more or less in a dead heat for 1st in the Division and nobody has a >3.5% chance of winning the division beyond those two.

AL Central

  1. Minnesota Twins – 92-70
  2. Detroit Tigers – 83-79
  3. Cleveland Indians – 81-81
  4. Kansas City Royals – 77-85
  5. Chicago White Sox- 76-86

Notes: Minnesota walks away with the division, mostly thanks to its pitching. Chicago gets pounded thanks in part to an unforgiving home stadium for its pitchers (and its defense). The Indians are in trouble with their pitching as well. However, Cleveland and Detroit win the division almost the same amount of the time (18.7, 17.3).

AL West

  1. Seattle Mariners – 82-80
  2. Los Angeles Angels – 81-81
  3. Oakland A’s – 78-84
  4. Texas Rangers – 64-98

Notes: The AL West is where the park effects are most glaring: Seattle gains a lot from playing in pitcher-friendly Safeco, while the Rangers lose a lot in Arlington. However, that set aside, the AL West looks very much up for grabs, even without the current pitching woes factored.

NL East

  1. Philadelphia Phillies – 92-68
  2. New York Mets – 91-71*
  3. Atlanta Braves – 81-81
  4. Florida Marlins – 77-85
  5. Washington Nationals – 65-97

Notes: Well, New York misses the division title by a hair – again. However, they are the favorite for the Wild Card. Everybody else has <10% chance at the division and Washington only finished 2nd once (<1% of the time).

NL Central

  1. St. Louis Cardinals – 88-74
  2. Chicago Cubs – 86-76
  3. Houston Astros – 82-80
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates – 78-84
  5. Milwaukee Brewers – 78-84
  6. Cincinnati Reds – 75-87

Notes: St. Louis wins mostly thanks to Pujols and a strong showing by Chris Carpenter. Why BBM loves Houston so much is beyond me – I think its the power of Lee, Berkman and Oswalts, but what else do they have? Pittsburgh is the big surprise, winning the World Series in 2% of the simulations – you have to admit, that is a lot for Pittsburgh. Again, BBM undervalues the Reds young pitching to the tune of the basement and the only NL Central team to not win the division in any sim.

NL West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers – 92-70
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks – 86-76
  3. San Francisco Giants – 78-84
  4. San Diego Padres – 70-92
  5. Colorado Rockies – 70-92

Notes: Manny helped the Dodgers a lot – in earlier sims, the division was much closer. Now the Dodgers win it handily, 81% of the time. I thought the Giants would do better, but their aenimic offense lead to only 3.3% division wins.

* = wildcard winner

Overall notes: Talk about parity. Only one team never made the playoffs in all 150 sims: the Washington Nationals. The one-off World Series winners were Oakland, LA of Anaheim, and Houston while Detroit, Cleveland and Arizona won twice.

As for the playoffs, here is how they stack (winners in bold, based on % of wins for each type of series and above).

AL

LDS

  • New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners
  • Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox

LCS

  • New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

NL

LDS

  • Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
  • Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets

LCS

  • Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

World Series

  • Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Notes: The BBM sims call for the Boston Red Sox to win it all in 2009. The Phillies do well for themselves making back to the World Series as well.

Look for my official picks next week!

MLB 2009 Preview … Preview!

So, to give you a taste for my 2009 MLB Preview, here are some results of what team might benefit the most from signing Manny Ramirez or Adam Dunn.

I ran 50 simulations of 2009 using Baseball Mogul 2009 as a baseline, then 5 simulations for each scenario.

Enjoy!

Manny Ramirez (wins listed with/without Manny)

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (87.4/88.4) – Manny means 1 extra win for the Dodgers, which might be big in a tight (but mediocre) division
  • New York Mets (91.0/96.2) – Guess which team got the biggest boost from Manny? Yup, the Mets. +5 wins puts them over the Phillies. Where are the Wilpons and their checkbook when you need ’em?
  • New York Yankees (98.0/92.2) – Thats right, Manny means -5.8 for the Yankees, which translates to the fact that Manny really doesn’t add much to the overly stacked lineup anyway.
  • San Francisco Giants (82.3/82.8 ) – A half game gain is really in the noise of the simulations, but might be the edge the Giants need to be competitive
  • Los Angeles Angels (81.2/81.0) – Really, no difference whatsoever, which surprised me. I guess the Angels are all about their pitching strength.
  • Kansas City Royals (76.9/76.6) – Just for kicks, and yeah, the Royals are going to suck.

Adam Dunn (Wins listed with/without Dunn)

  • San Francisco Giants (82.3/79.6) – I took the liberty of having Dunn play 1B, and really, he doesn’t help the Giants that much. They get dragged down by a lot of the flotsam that occupies the rest of the lineup.
  • Atlanta Braves (85.7/86.8 ) – Dunn (playing LF) gives the Braves a modest 1 game bump upwards.
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (87.4/92.6) – Maybe all this dancing with Manny is the wrong direction of the Dodgers. Just go out and sign Dunn for probably half the cost and walk away with the NL West.
  • Washington Nationals (65.7/70.0) – Dunn adds almost 5 wins … to get the Nats to 70 for the season. OK, well, he’s no cure-all I suppose.

Simulated Phils don’t fare as well as I’d like

So, in my quest to not make my World Series pick based on gut and heart alone, I decided to simulate the World Series usingĀ Diamond Mind Online. Unfortunately for the Phillies, it doesn’t turn out as well as I had hoped.

Tampa won the series 4-3 for their first World Series championship. The Series MVP was none other than James Shields, who won games 3 and 7.

NOTE 10/20/08: Of course, the minute I did this, I read that Kazmir will start game 1. I will redo the sims considering Tampa’s revised rotation. Bah!

For your entertainment, here are the summaries of the 7 game series (remember, games 1,2,6,7 in Tampa and games 3-5 in Philadelphia):

Game 1: Tampa 6 – Philadelphia 4 (Tampa leads 1-0)

  • W: Edwin Jackson; L: Chad Durbin; Sv: David Price
  • Summary: Philly starter Cole Hamels was not at his sharpest, giving up 4 ER in 5.1 IP with 5K. Tampa starter Andrew Sonnanstine didn’t fare much better, surrendering 4 ER in 6.1 IP with 4K. Ryan Howard did put the Phillies ahead at one point with a HR, while Greg Dobbs went 2/4. However, that was no match for B.J. Upton, who went 3/4 with 2 HR and 4 RBI.
Game 2: Philadelphia 7 – Tampa 4 (Tied 1-1)
  • W: Brett Myers; L: Scott Kazmir
  • Summary: Brett Myers took over as the Philadelphia ace, throwing 6.1 innings with 3 ER and 7 K, holding Tampa off balance. On the flipside, Scott Kazmir imploded in the first inning, giving up 4 ER, but he did end up hanging around for 5 innings, giving up 5 ER with 3 BB and 6 K. Philly closer Brad Lidge gave up a 9th inning HR to Evan Longoria, too. Shane Victorino got 2 H and scored 2 R, while Pedro Feliz drove in 2 on 0 H.
Game 3: Tampa 4 – Philadelphia 2 (Tampa leads 2-1)
  • W: James Shields; L: Ryan Madson: Sv: David Price
  • Summary: James Shields was nearly outpitched by Jamie Moyer, both going 6 IP and giving up 2 ER (with Shields striking out 5 to Moyer’s 0), but Shields came out with the win when Ryan Madson gave up a PH HR to Eric Hinske. Chad Bradford added 2 innings of 0 H, 2K relief. The only real offense for Philly consisted of Pedro Feliz’s HR as they floundered at home.
Game 4: Tampa 5 – Philadelphia 3 (Tampa lead 3-1)
  • W: Chad Bradford; L: Chad Durbin; Sv: David Price
  • Summary: The Philadelphia bullpen blew another game, this time Chad Durbin did the damage, giving up a big 2 run hit to Jason Bartlett in the top of the 9th. Evan Longoria hit a HR earlier off Philly starter Joe Blanton, who went 6 innings and gave up 2 ER with 4 K. Matt Garza was good, but not great, allowing 3 ER in 6 IP with 4 K, while David Price racked up his third save. The Phillies got 2 RBI from Pat Burrell and 2 H from Shane Victorino.
Game 5: Philadelphia 10 – Tampa 2 (Tampa leads 3-2)
  • W: Cole Hamels; L: Andrew Sonnanstine
  • Summary: This was the type of game that Philly hoped it would get at home, it only took 2 games to get there. Ryan Howard also finally decided to show up, going 3/4 with 3 RBI and a HR. Jayson Werth added 2 RBI, 3 H and a HR, while Pedro Feliz went deep for his own 2R HR. Cole Hamels pitched well, striking out 11 over 6 IP with 1 ER and Sonnanstine fared poorly, giving up 5 ER in 4 IP. Carlos Pena was one bright spot for Tampa, going 2/4 with 2 doubles.
Game 6: Philadelphia 4 – Tampa 2 (Tied 3-3)
  • W: Brett Myers; L: Scott Kazmir; Sv: Brad Lidge
  • Summary: Scott Kazmir got bombed again, lasting only 4.2 IP, yielding 4 ER with 7 BB and 5 K. The biggest hit was Geoff Jenkins grand slam after Kazmir walked the bases loaded. Pedro Feliz also went 3/4. Brett Myers again pitched well, 6 IP with 2 ER and 5K. Carl Crawford went 2/4 and Longoria drove in a run in the losing effort.
Game 7: Tampa 4 – Philadelphia 1 (Tampa wins 4-3)
  • W: James Shields; L: Jamie Moyer; Sv: Chad Bradford
  • Summary: James Shields decided to take Tampa all the way to the top, coming 2 outs from a CG, striking out 7 and allowing only 1 ER. Chad Bradford came in to get the save and finish Tampa’s World Series run. The big hit was Rocco Baldelli’s 2R HR off Jamie Moyer, who performed admirably, allowing 3 ER in 6 IP with 2K. Philadelphia did get on base a lot, with Burrell, Utley and Victorino all getting 2 H, but none would score except for Burrell on a solo HR. If anything killed the Phillies chances to win the Series is Jimmy Rollins inability to get on base most of the Series.
So, there you have it. My heart says Philly will win, but Tampa does seem like a better team on paper. In any case, sounds like an exciting series.