Bold Predictions for the 2013 Baseball Season

Sometimes merely picks the teams to win the division and wild card is too random — I mean, I am usually entirely wrong and as predictions go, they’re pretty boring. So, I thought I’d whip up 10 bold predictions for the 2013 season that if they do come true, well, I might need to change careers. Here goes.

1. Yoenis Cespedes will hit at least 40 HR. It seems like it has been awhile since any Oakland Athletic hit 40 HR. 13 seasons to be exact, when Jason Giambi (still kicking around with the Indians after almost getting named manager of the Rockies) hit 43. Cespedes is in his prime and looked very comfortable in the majors during the second half of 2012.
2. Houston won’t be the worst team in baseball. The newly-American Leagued Astros have been getting a lot of grief over their AAA roster in the majors right now. However, I think that two teams actually might be worse: the Marlins and the Rockies. Sure, Miami has Giancarlo and Colorado has Troy, but the absolute lack of hitting for the Marlins and utter lack of pitching for the Rockies might put them into the 105+ loss realm.
3. Joe Girardi will be fired by the end of the season. Here’s a fun one! Sadly, Joe will be the fall guy after Jeter, CC and Teixiera combine for over 162 games on the DL. I find it hard to imagine the 2013 Yankees being much different than the 2013 Red Sox … except there isn’t anyone to take on the Yankees bad contracts.
4. Seattle makes a run at the playoffs. The Mariners have a few things going for them right now: good pitching, better hitting and closer fences. Of course, they are in a killer division, with the A’s, Rangers and Angels. However, they  will make a run at the end of the summer, but ultimately miss that second wild card by a game or two.
5. Jacoby Ellsbury is traded by the deadline. Don’t get me wrong, I love Jacoby. He’s a Beaver like me and been a blast to watch when he’s not hurt. Unfortunately for him, his contract (or lack there of) for 2014 and the presence of Jackie Bradley Jr. means that Sox can try to get some value for Jacoby. My hunch might be a 1B prospect.
6. The Tigers win the AL Central by 10 games or more. The Indians, Royals and White Sox might not like it, but the Tigers might lap the field in the Central. Sure, Cleveland and Kansas City are better than 2012, but too many problems remain. However, one of those teams might make a run at that second Wild Card.
7. Tim Lincecum has Tommy John surgery. OK, not much of a bold prediction, but something must be wrong with Timmy after dropping off the face of good pitching over the last year.
8. Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper combine for 75 HR. Distribute the homers as you seen fit, but the Nationals will be a great team in 2013. The Braves will also be a good team, possibly the second best in the NL, but they’ll have to settle for the Wild Card again.
9. Josh Beckett is traded again at the deadline. Josh wears out his welcome in Los Angeles as the Dodgers underperform yet again. Likely destination: the Royals as they try to make that playoff run (that fails).
10. Cincinnati bests Toronto in the World Series. It will be a close Series, but in the end, Chapman is able to close the door on the Jays.

The All Seafood Baseball Team

Sometimes I lie awake at night when I can’t sleep and think about relatively odd things. Last night I was wondering if one could construct an all-seafood* baseball team – and after a little digging on Baseball-Reference.com, I was able to make a passable roster of such players. Enjoy!

The Lineup

• C Hank Conger – Mike Scoscia might hate him, but I’ll have him on the All Seafood team
• 1B Mike Carp
• 2B Ron Oester – Did I cheat here? Yes, I did. Too bad.
• 3B Melvin Mora
• SS Lip Pike – Lip played for the Worcester Ruby Legs in 1881 at age 36 after taking 3 years off. I’m hoping he took those three years from 1878-81 hunting down the rabid buffalo.
• RF Kevin Bass – Bass is the most common fishy name in MLB history.
• CF Mike Trout – Might he become the best seafood player ever? Only Tim Salmon stands in the way.
• LF A.J. Pollock
• DH Tim Salmon – With 299 career home runs, Tim is the king of the sea!

Pitching staff

• SP Brian Bass
• SP Art Herring – Not really an illustrious career, but did lead the major in hit-batsmen in 1931.
• SP Dory Dean – If you can believe it, Dory Dean went 4-26 in 1876, even with a 3.73 ERA.
• SP Harry Eells – I know some of you might say “that can’t pronounced ‘eels’!” However, his nickname was supposedly “Slippery”, so I’m right.
• SP Anthony Bass
• CL Chris Ray – To my great disappointment, there has never been an MLB closer named Muddy Mudskipper

Some players that didn’t make the cut for being at least a marginal major leaguer included Michael Clampitt, Snapper Kennedy and Keith Darter.

Got any suggestions of players I missed?

* Are freshwater fish we eat also called seafood? Seems odd to me.

 

Why MLB Blackout Rules Need to End Now

Sometimes I think that MLB.tv is the greatest invention ever. However, it can never, ever, ever really take that prize while the inane MLB Blackout rules stay in place. For those of you unfamiliar with this concept, MLB will “blackout” all home and away games for people trying to dare watch the games on the internet via MLB.tv. I think the idea is twofold: (1) blacking out the games is required due to cable deals with regional networks and (2) blacking out games will get people to buy tickets to see the games instead. Both of these lines are nuts because, for reason (1), many people with MLB.tv are not likely to be cable subscribers as well. As for reason (2), how many people do you know that think “the game’s not on TV? I guess I’ll spend $100 to see it live.”

If you’ve never seen the MLB Blackout map, prepare to laugh.

So, if you live in the following cities, which teams are you not allowed to see ANY games on MLB.tv?

• Boston, MA: Red Sox (reasonable)
• Rochester, MN: Twins, Brewers (hmmm)
• Klamath Falls, OR: Mariners, A’s and Giants (well, huh, that’s weird)
• Charlotte, NC: Orioles, Nationals, Reds and Braves (Yes, all those Reds fans in … Charlotte?)
• Des Moines, IA: [the colors blind me]: Cubs, White Sox, Twins, Brewers, Royals, Cardinals, Ham Fighters, Logicians

That is only a smattering of the fun if you examine this map in detail.

This all got me wondering – just how far away can you get from a team and still be blacked out? I tried some different combinations and here are some fun distances to consider (first number is straight line distance, second is driving distance):

• 356/442 miles: Charlotte, NC is blacked out of all Baltimore Orioles games
• 409/491 miles: Reva, SD is black out of all Colorado Rockies games
• 457/567 miles: Eudora, AR is blacked out of all Kansas City Royals games
• 542/735 miles: Clayton, NM is blacked out of all Arizona Diamondbacks games
• 562/720 miles: Mobile, AL is blacked out of all Miami Marlins games

And the record for the continental US

• 834/1,065 miles: Wibaux, MT is black out for all Seattle Mariners games

Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing pointed out that if you leave the friendly confines of the North American continent, Hawaii enjoys black outs of all Giants, A’s, Padres and Mariners games as well. Hawaii is a mere 2,725 miles from Sodo Mojo, so those crafty MLB plutocrats know that people can just hop a Hawaiian air flight to Seattle to catch a game. The Mariners have it good, though, as Alaska is also part of the team’s designated blackout zone, so those of you in Point Barrow only have 1,926 miles to fly (if you want to drive to the game, you’re out of luck – Google Maps tells me “We could not calculate directions between Point Barrow, AK and Seattle, WA.”)

So, there you have it. MLB loves money, but instead of loving all money equally, they love the money from big cable corporations more than fan money, so we’re stuck with insane blackout rules. What can we do about it? Nothing, because MLB is exempt from antitrust rules so they can do whatever they want as the owners eat caviar out of Bud Selig’s loafers on the decks of their yachts.

Enjoy the game (if MLB lets you).

 

My 2010 MLB Predictions

Ah yes, Opening Day is around the corner, so as I do most years, I will make my prognostication about the 2010 MLB season. Now, sometimes I employ simulations, sometime I make wild guesses and sometimes I do a little of everything. This year I’m employing a system called Player Ranking and Evaluation for Season Standings, or PRESS. What does that mean? Not much beyond looking at the depth charts, assigning some values, adding short columns of small numbers and voila! I have predictions. Enjoy at your leisure…

American League East

1. New York Yankees: 102-60
2. Boston Red Sox: 98-64
3. Tampa Bay Rays: 93-69
4. Baltimore Orioles: 70-92
5. Toronto Blue Jays: 61-101

After finding out that Shaun Marcum will be the Opening Day starter for the Jays, I feel like 61 wins is generous. Also, it sucks to be the Rays in the AL East.

American League Central

1. Minnesota Twins: 81-81
2. Chicago White Sox: 80-82
3. Detroit Tigers: 74-88
4. Cleveland Indians: 67-95
5. Kansas City Royals: 63-99

The land of AL mediocrity. Again.

American League West

1. Seattle Mariners: 93-69
2. Texas Rangers: 84-78
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 70-92
4. Oakland A’s: 69-93

I worry I am blinded by the fact I really, really want the ‘Ners to win the West, because I’m fond of them and I like a lot of their players. I’m also concerned that the Angels might be undervalued here, but here, what is the fun of predictions if you don’t go out on a limb?

National League East

1. Philadelphia Phillies: 99-63
2. New York Mets: 92-70
3. Atlanta Braves: 83-79
4. Florida Marlins: 77-85
5. Washington Nationals: 63-99

I would have to assume that the Mets winning 92 games is predicated on Omar Minaya being bound and gagged for most of the season and every member wearing a magic amulet to keep them healthy. But yeah, the Phils win the East again.

National League Central

1. Chicago Cubs: 86-76
2. St. Louis Cardinals: 85-77
3. Milwaukee Brewers: 83-79
4. Cincinnati Reds: 78-84
5. Houston Astros: 75-87
6. Pittsburgh Pirates: 71-91

Maybe, just maybe, things will break for the Cubs. Maybe.

National League West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks: 94-68
2. Colorado Rockies: 93-69
3. Los Angeles Dodgers: 91-71
4. San Francisco Giants: 85-77
5. San Diego Padres: 73-89

Last year in this space, I bolding predicted the Dbacks would win the West … and they promptly sucked. This is a message to Josh Byrnes: please, don’t suck again.

Playoffs

ALDS

• New York over Minnesota
• Seattle over Boston

NLDS

• Philadelphia over Colorado
• Chicago over Arizona

LC

• Chicago over Philadelphia
• Seattle over New York

World Series

• Seattle over Chicago

Yes, the ‘Ners win it all in 2010. I mostly wish this so I can hear whatever brilliant thing Ichiro might say upon winning the World Series.

Magma League Map

For the 14 of you who might find this interesting:

2009 Magma League Map

Your 2010 Boston Red Sox

Or so it seems right now:

Starters

1. Jacoby Ellsbury LF (yes, LF, according to the Sox)
2. Dustin Pedroia 2B
3. Kevin Youkilis 1B
4. Victor Martinez C
5. Adrian Beltre 3B
6. David Ortiz DH
7. J.D. Drew RF
8. Mike Cameron CF
9. Marco Scutaro SS

Rotation

1. Jon Lester
2. Josh Beckett
3. John Lackey
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
5. Clay Buchholz

Bullpen

• Jonathan Papelbon
• Daniel Bard
• Hideki Okajima
• Ramon Ramirez
• Manny Delcarmen
• Boof Bonser
• Tim Wakefield

Bench

• Jason Varitek (C)
• Mike Lowell (3B)
• Tug Hulett (UT)
• Jeremy Hermida (OF)

I like it!

2009-2010 MLB offseason

Is it just me, or is this the most boring offseason ever.

Dallas McPherson signing a minor league contract with the A’s is a highlight? Jeez.

A vision for the 2010 Red Sox (a.k.a. wild fantasies that will not come true)

The 2009 Red Sox were pretty good. They weren’t great, but they did make the playoffs only to flame out in ALDS versus the Los Angeles Angels (which, incidentally, translates to The Angels Angels, right?) Since 2004 and 2007, the blow of such events has been greatly lessened for me. Sure, I was not pleased with their performance and the eventual crowning of the hated Yankees as champs, but by no means was I heartbroken/crushed/unable to eat or sleep for days as it was before the Sox return to glory. The Sox didn’t win, but hey, you can’t win every year (and I still can’t imagine what 2003 me would think if he knew that 2009 me would be writing that calmly, lucidly and soberly.)

Anyway, this is not to say that I don’t want the Sox to succeed. Of course I do, that is why I’m a fan. I love my Red Sox no less than I did in 2004 and I still can’t stand to listen (yes, I tend to listen to the Sox) them lose any game. So, with the Yankees not getting any weaker and the Rays likely to bounce back, what can the Red Sox do to keep pace in 2010? Let’s see …

The roster (as of 11/23/2009) – starters in italics when there is an appropriate starter

• C: Victor Martinez; Jason Varitek
• 1B: Kevin Youkilis*/Mike Lowell*; Casey Kotchman
• 2B: Dustin Pedroia
• 3B: Kevin Youkilis*/Mike Lowell*
• SS: Jed Lowrie
• RF: J.D. Drew; Jeremy Hermida
• CF: Jacoby Ellsbury; Brian Anderson
• LF: Jeremy Hermida
• DH: David Ortiz
• SP: Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield
• CL: Jonathan Papelbon
• SU: Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima
• MR: Ramon Ramirez, Dustin Richardson, Manny Delcarmen
• LOOGY: (none)
• MU: (none)

* According to some things I’ve read, Youkilis might play third and Lowell might move to first, which could make sense in terms of defense. I’ll list them at both of the hot corners.

So, what is needed? A shortstop, a left fielder, a starter and some relievers. Sounds about right, and mostly in that order. What to do?

Shortstop: Am I the only one who thinks signing a 34-year-old after a fluke year is a bad idea? That idea’s name is Marco Scutaro. Now, trading for either Stephen Drew or Brandon Phillips is a good idea. Drew will cost more and Phillips costs more money, but either at short would be just fine. Additionally, I’d sign Khalil Greene to a minor league deal.

Leftfield: Everyone seems to think this should be a question of Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. Don’t get me wrong, they’re both fine players, but I just feel a lot of enthusiasm towards signing either to the big, long term deals they will want. Sure, if you can get either for 3 years, do it, but thats not happening. So, if the Sox don’t sign either? Well, how about a platoon of Marlon Byrd/Rick Ankiel and Jeremy Hermida? I’d also be tempted to sign Rocco Baldelli or Austin Kearns to minor league deals if possible. Or lets think waaay outside the box: Miguel Tejada in left? Maybe Conor Jackson?

Starters: The Sox have 5 guys who should be good to serviceable (when averaged over all 5). If you look at the top three, the rotation should be quite good, and if Daisuke can get his act back together, they should have a decent top 4. However, as last year showed, you can never, ever, ever have too much pitching. So the Sox really need to go out and sign some reclamation projects to shore up the rotation. Ben Sheets? Rich Harden? Eric Bedard? Justin Duchscherer? Kelvim Escobar? Brett Myers? Chien-ming Wang? There are a lot of options. This all being said, 2010 is a year of decision for the Sox – can they compete for a championship, so should they wait until it all comes off the books (well, Beckett, Lowell and Papi) in 2011? If they think they can win, they should go all in for any of the aces that could be dealt: Roy Halladay, Josh Johnson, Roy Oswalt, someone like that. It will be pricy, but that would definitely shore things up.

Relievers: OK, way too many to go through for potential relief help through free agency or trades, but … how about kicking the tires on guys like Joaquin Benoit, Kiko Calero, JJ Putz, Takashi Saito (again), Ron Mahay (as a LOOGY) or Chan Ho Park. Potential nontenders worth examining might be Jeremy Accardo, Taylor Bucholz, Matt Lindstrom or Seth McClung.

Wild card ideas: What if the Sox bring in a big 1B and just cut/trade Lowell or Papi – maybe acquire Lance Berkman for a bevy of prospects to the rebuilding Astros? Or what about signing Garrett Atkins as a free agent if he is nontendered? Or even get Tejada to play 1B?

My ideal 2010 Red Sox roster

Batting

1. Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2. Brandon Phillips SS
3. Dustin Pedroia 2B
4. Kevin Youkilis 3B
5. Victor Martinez C
6. Miguel Tejada 1B
7. J.D. Drew RF
8. David Ortiz/Mike Lowell DH
9. Hermida/Ankiel LF

Starters

1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. Clay Buccholz
4. Daisuke Matsuzaka
5. Justin Duchscherer

Relievers

• CL: Jonathan Papelbon
• SU: Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima
• MR: Ramon Ramirez, Kiko Calero, Ron Mahay
• MU: Tim Wakefield

Bench

1. Jason Varitek C
2. Casey Kotchman 1B
3. Khalil Greene SS

Enjoy!

The actual NL and AL Rookies of the Year

The BBWAA announced the voting for the NL and AL ROYs yesterday, and well, it was interesting.

AL winner: Andrew Bailey RP (Oakland) – He was definitely impressive, was he really that much better than Brett Anderson? Speaking of Brett Anderson, how did he did up with only 1 2nd and 1 3rd place vote? As Rob Neyer points out, Brett Anderson was better (in a fielding-independent world) than either Neimann or Porcello, both of which scored a lot more votes.

NL winner: We can all be a little saddened by the fact that Chris Coghlan OF (Florida) somehow conned the voters to get the win. I mean, are that many BBWAA writers still impressed with a pretty batting average? Apparently so. I would like to be the first to congratulation our 2009 version of the immortal Todd Hollandsworth. Now, how J.A. Happ got more votes than Tommy Hanson will baffle me for quite a while too (and poor ol’ Andrew McCutchen came in 4th! Fourth, people!)

2009 MLB Awards

Now that we’ve crowned the truly uninspring 2009 World Series Champions, we can move onto the offseason hoping that 2010 offers a little more drama than the richest team in the league winning it all.

Next week, the MLB Writers will announce the 2009 MLB awards, so on that note, I’m posting my ballot (if I had a vote …)

All players listed with their WPA and WAR (from FanGraphs)

Rookie of the Year

American League:

1. Brett Anderson SP (Oakland) – 0.12/3.8
2. Jeff Neimann SP (Tampa Bay) – 1.87/3.2
3. Elvis Andrus SS (Texas) – (-0.66)/3.0

WAR tends to heavily favor starters in these situations and also favors defense, which is why Andrus snuck in at #3 instead of Gordon Beckham (3B CHI).

National League:

1. Andrew McCutchen OF (Pittsburgh) – 2.02/3.4
2. Tommy Hanson SP (Atlanta) – 2.04/2.6
3. Randy Wells SP (Chicago) – 1.64/3.0
4. Garrett Jones OF (Pittsburgh) – 1.25/2.6

UPDATED 11/13: You know, somehow I completely forgot Tommy Hanson (SP Atlanta). He rolls in with a 2.04/2.6, which puts him very close to McCutchen. My gut says to rank the position player higher than the pitcher, so there you have it.

Amazingly, J.A. Happ’s WAR was only 1.8, below all of the above and guys like Casey McGehee (UT MIL) and Chris Coghlan (OF FLA).

MVP

American League:

1. Joe Mauer C (Minnesota) – 3.64/8.2
2. Ben Zobrist UT (Tampa Bay) – 4.10/8.6
3. Derek Jeter SS (New York) – 1.41/7.4
4. Franklin Gutierrez OF (Seattle) – 3.72/5.9
5. Zack Grienke SP (Kansas City) – 6.07/9.4
6. Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B (Boston) – 2.36/5.6
7. Miguel Cabrera 1B (Detroit) – 1.59/5.4
8. Mark Teixiera 1B (New York) – 3.58/5.1
9. Shin Soo Choo OF (Cleveland) – 2.11/5.0
10. Victor Martinez C (Boston) – 3.23/4.9

A few surprises, wouldn’t you say? I couldn’t bring myself to putting Zobrist at the top over Mauer – too many questions in my mind about the value of C defense in the WAR calculations. It was also hard to figure where to slot in the pitchers, but Grienke belongs in the list somewhere. Franklin Gutierrez looks like the steal of the year for the Mariners – adequate hitting and remarkable defense = high WAR (yet no Gold Glove … gotta love it). I was also surprised to see the good showing of Shin Soo Choo.

National League:

1. Albert Pujols 1B (St. Louis) – 8.24/8.4
2. Chase Utley 2B (Philadelphia) – 4.3/7.6
3. Tim Lincecum SP (San Francisco) – 4.26/8.2
4. Hanley Ramirez SS (Florida) – 3.09/7.3
5. Prince Fielder 1B (Milwaukee) – 7.79/6.8
6. Adrian Gonzalez 1B (San Diego) – 4.2/6.3
7. Derek Lee 1B (Chicago) – 3.84/5.3
8. Pablo Sandoval 3B (San Francisco) – 4.71/5.2
9. Ryan Howard 1B (Philadelphia) – 6.03/4.8
10. Ryan Braun OF (Milwaukee) – 4.73/4.8

Nothing too shocking – Pujols wins by a (not as big as I expected) margin over Chase Utley. Tim Lincecum is the on the list as the only starter. This was quite a year for 1B in the NL.

Cy Young

American League

1. Zack Grienke (Kansas City) – 6.07/9.4
2. Justin Verlander (Detroit) – 4.19/8.2
3. Roy Halladay (Toronto) – 3.52/7.3
4. Felix Hernandez (Seattle) – 3.26/6.9
5. Jon Lester (Boston) – 2.50/6.2
6. CC Sabathia (New York) – 2.89/6.0
7. Andrew Bailey (Oakland) – 2.68/2.4
8. Mariano Rivera (New York) – 3.99/2.0
9. Jonathan Papelbon (Boston) – 5.13/1.9
10. Josh Beckett (Boston) – 2.2/5.3

OK, anyone who says Grienke shouldn’t be the Cy Young should be excommunicated from baseball fandom. There was a steep dropoff in starters after CC, thus the three relievers in a row … and yes, Andrew Bailey was the best of that bunch.

National League

1. Tim Lincecum (San Francisco) – 4.26/8.2
2. Javier Vazquez (Atlanta) – 2.41/6.6
3. Dan Haren (Arizona) – 2.95/6.1
4. Adam Wainwright (St. Louis) – 3.60/5.7
5. Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado) – 3.16/5.7
6. Josh Johnson (Florida) – 3.05/5.5
7. Chris Carpenter (St. Louis) – 5.41/4.5
8. Jair Jurrjens (Atlanta) – 3.35/3.9
9. Randy Wolf (Los Angeles) – 0.69/3.0
10. Huston Street (Colorado) – 3.38/1.5

Much like the AL, anyone who thinks Lincecum shouldn’t win the Cy Young (again) is silly. He didn’t get the wins, but everything else was hands-down better. And two Colorado pitchers in the top 10? Go figure.